10 movies John wouldn’t mind seeing this fall (Commentary)

I’ve done the hard work of perusing Entertainment Weekly’s fall movie preview and watching the trailers, and I now present the top 10 movies to see this fall:

“Apollo 18” (Sept. 2) — At least give ’em credit for the cleverest premise of the season: Footage of a secret moon landing is found, gradually revealing why the footage and the mission were hidden in the first place. I’m a little worried that it’ll be as deliberate and dull as the overrated “Moon” from a couple years back; the moon truly is a stark and inescapable setting, but not always in a good way.

“Moneyball” (Sept. 23) — The trailer makes this look like a mainstream Hollywood sports movie, which is not the treatment the material deserves. While Billy Beane’s Oakland A’s have been successful for a small-market team, they have only won one playoff series in the last decade, so this isn’t a story about winning miraculous world championships. If the movie sticks close the book’s inside-baseball nature, though, it could be fascinating.

“Red State” (Sept. 23) — Kevin Smith — yes, that Kevin Smith — takes a crack at a hybrid of horror, dark comedy and extreme violence that would make Quentin Tarantino proud (and, indeed, Tarantino is on record as loving this movie). It’s not exactly my cup of tea (I prefer parodies of this genre, such as “Machete,” rather than the genre itself), but it certainly looks on-target for what it is.

“50/50” (Sept. 30) — The trailer has some decent jokes, such as Seth Rogen talking his friend, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, into using his cancer to attract women. It looks to be a more sweet-natured movie than “Funny People,” where Adam Sandler plays a mean comedian with cancer.

“What’s Your Number?” (Sept. 30) — The whole story is there in the trailer: Anna Faris catches up with a bunch of exes in this female answer to “Broken Flowers,” gradually realizing what the audience already knows: that Chris Evans is perfect for her. Funny vignettes could abound, as the exes include Martin Freeman, Zachary Quinto, Joel McHale, Chris Pratt and Andy Samberg.

“Dirty Girl” (Oct. 7) — The title character and a misfit boy from special ed cut class and go on a road trip where they learn about themselves and life. It looks like a semi-serious comedy where a lot of the jokey tone comes from the fact that it’s set in the 1980s.

“Paranormal Activity 3” (Oct. 21) — For some viewers of this series — which is following the “Saw” format where every movie is a prequel/sequel/sidequel to previous movies — the law of diminishing returns kicked in last Halloween with “PA 2.” But I think it still has some juice left, especially after seeing the scene that taps into the Bloody Mary mirror myth.

“Like Crazy” (Oct. 28) — Looking like the movie the overrated “Once” should’ve been, “Like Crazy” appears to be a romance film for people with functioning hearts and brains. I have my doubts, though, because 2011 has already delivered its token film in that category with “Crazy, Stupid, Love.” The trailer makes this look like a genuine tearjerker, though.

“The Descendants” (Nov. 23) — It’s not so much the plot — George Clooney learns his dying wife was cheating on him — that makes this movie notable. It’s the fact that it’s Alexander Payne’s first film since 2004’s “Sideways,” and it will likely have plenty of the little moments of real-but-slightly-offbeat humor he is known for.

“Young Adult” (Dec. 9) — The writer (Diablo Cody) and director (Jason Reitman) of “Juno” team up again for what could be another fun, quirky comedy. Whereas “Juno” tackled teenager-dom, this one moves the action forward, telling the story of a grown woman (Charlize Theron) who has the emotional maturity of a teenager.

And two fall movies I think I’ll avoid:

“The Thing” (Oct. 14) — This didn’t need to be remade. Wait, let me rephrase that: It needed to be remade when John Carpenter remade the 1951 movie into a rough-but-pretty-much-perfect horror classic in 1982. But it doesn’t need to be remade with glossy actors and digital effects — and the exact same plot — in 2011.

“Jack and Jill” (Nov. 11) — Adam Sandler plays his own twin sister, and — as you’d expect — the previews reveal that the twin sister looks nothing like a woman but rather exactly like Adam Sandler in drag. That’s part of the joke, of course, and Sandler used to do the so-stupid-it’s-funny oeuvre quite well. But I’m still peeved about the yawner that was “Grown-Ups,” and this appears to have the same lack of ambition.

What movies are you most looking forward to this fall, and what looks skippable? Share your thoughts in the comment thread below.